Tournament Outlook

Championship odds & projected finishers · 10,000 simulations

Updated 6:30 AM· next 1:00 AM
JB
Monte Carlo · 10,000 simulations

Championship Probability

1
ARG
Argentina
38.6%1
2
ESP
Spain
28.1%1
3
FRA
France
8.4%
4
BRA
Brazil
6.4%1
5
COL
Colombia
4.1%1
6
ENG
England
2.9%1
7
JPN
Japan
2.6%1
8
NED
Netherlands
1.7%
9
GER
Germany
1.5%1
10
POR
Portugal
1.2%
Probabilities re-simulated each daily refresh from current form, injuries & schedule.
Projected finish

The Final Four

1
ARG
Argentina
62.6%
Top-4 odds
2
ESP
Spain
57.2%
Top-4 odds
3
FRA
France
29.8%
Top-4 odds
4
BRA
Brazil
28.6%
Top-4 odds
How the model thinks

Prediction Weights

Team Strength / Elo25%
Recent Form20%
Attack & Defense20%
Injuries & Suspensions15%
Tournament Context10%
Public Odds / Sentiment5%
AI News Analysis5%
Daily power index

Team Power Rankings

1
ESP
Spain
Best ball progression in the field
WWWWD
2157
Elo
1
2
ARG
Argentina
Reigning champions, elite spine
WWWDW
2115
Elo
1
3
FRA
France
Devastating pace in transition
WWDWW
2063
Elo
4
ENG
England
Deepest attacking roster
WDWWL
2024
Elo
1
5
BRA
Brazil
Individual quality, defensive questions
WLWWW
1991
Elo
1
6
POR
Portugal
Golden generation, final shot
WWDLW
1989
Elo
7
COL
Colombia
Creative, unbeaten run
WDWWD
1982
Elo
1
8
NED
Netherlands
Balanced, peaks in knockouts
WDWLW
1948
Elo
9
ITA
Italy
Defensively elite again
WWDDW
1948
Elo
1
10
ECU
Ecuador
World Cup 2026 participant
1938
Elo
11
GER
Germany
Rebuilt, momentum building
DWWDW
1932
Elo
1
12
NOR
Norway
World Cup 2026 participant
1914
Elo
13
CRO
Croatia
Tournament pedigree, ageing core
DWLWD
1912
Elo
1
14
TUR
Türkiye
World Cup 2026 participant
1911
Elo
15
JPN
Japan
Quick, fearless, organised
WWWDL
1906
Elo
1
16
BEL
Belgium
Transitional squad, still dangerous
WDDWL
1894
Elo
1
17
URU
Uruguay
Aggressive, well-coached
WLWDW
1892
Elo
1
18
SUI
Australia
World Cup 2026 participant
1891
Elo
19
MEX
Mexico
Home crowds, attacking verve
WDWLW
1875
Elo
20
SEN
Iran
World Cup 2026 participant
1860
Elo
21
PAR
Paraguay
World Cup 2026 participant
1834
Elo
22
AUT
Scotland
World Cup 2026 participant
1830
Elo
23
MAR
Morocco
Semifinalist DNA, rock-solid
WWDWD
1827
Elo
1
24
CAN
Canada
Pace on the break, host boost
LWDWL
1788
Elo
25
SCO
Scotland
World Cup 2026 participant
1782
Elo
26
AUS
Australia
World Cup 2026 participant
1777
Elo
27
ALG
Tunisia
World Cup 2026 participant
1772
Elo
28
IRN
Egypt
World Cup 2026 participant
1772
Elo
29
KOR
South Korea
World Cup 2026 participant
1758
Elo
30
CZE
Czech Republic
World Cup 2026 participant
1740
Elo
31
PAN
Panama
World Cup 2026 participant
1730
Elo
32
USA
USA
Host energy + young core
WWDWL
1726
Elo
1
33
UZB
Uzbekistan
World Cup 2026 participant
1714
Elo
34
SWE
Sweden
World Cup 2026 participant
1712
Elo
35
EGY
Egypt
World Cup 2026 participant
1696
Elo
36
CIV
Ivory Coast
World Cup 2026 participant
1695
Elo
37
JOR
Jordan
World Cup 2026 participant
1680
Elo
38
COD
Congo DR
World Cup 2026 participant
1652
Elo
39
TUN
Algeria
World Cup 2026 participant
1628
Elo
40
IRQ
Iraq
World Cup 2026 participant
1607
Elo
41
BIH
Bosnia & Herzegovina
World Cup 2026 participant
1595
Elo
42
CPV
Cape Verde Islands
World Cup 2026 participant
1578
Elo
43
KSA
Saudi Arabia
World Cup 2026 participant
1576
Elo
44
NZL
New Zealand
World Cup 2026 participant
1562
Elo
45
HAI
Haiti
World Cup 2026 participant
1548
Elo
46
RSA
South Africa
World Cup 2026 participant
1517
Elo
47
GHA
Ghana
World Cup 2026 participant
1510
Elo
48
CUW
Curaçao
World Cup 2026 participant
1434
Elo
49
QAT
Qatar
World Cup 2026 participant
1421
Elo