Tournament Outlook

Championship odds & projected finishers · 10,000 simulations

Updated 9:00 PM· next 1:00 AM

JB

Monte Carlo · 10,000 simulations

Championship Probability

1

ESP

Spain

100%1

2

ARG

Argentina

0%1

3

FRA

France

0%

4

ENG

England

0%1

5

BRA

Brazil

0%1

6

POR

Portugal

0%

7

GER

Germany

0%1

8

NED

Netherlands

0%

9

BEL

Belgium

0%1

10

CRO

Croatia

0%1

Probabilities re-simulated each daily refresh from current form, injuries & schedule.

Projected finish

The Final Four

1

ESP

Spain

0%

Top-4 odds

2

ARG

Argentina

100%

Top-4 odds

3

FRA

France

100%

Top-4 odds

4

ENG

England

100%

Top-4 odds

How the model thinks

Prediction Weights

Team Strength / Elo25%

Recent Form20%

Attack & Defense20%

Injuries & Suspensions15%

Tournament Context10%

Public Odds / Sentiment5%

AI News Analysis5%

Daily power index

Team Power Rankings

1

ESP

Spain

Best ball progression in the field

WWWWW

2259

Elo

1

2

ARG

Argentina

Reigning champions, elite spine

LWWWW

2173

Elo

1

3

ENG

England

Deepest attacking roster

WLWWW

2125

Elo

1

4

FRA

France

Devastating pace in transition

LLWWW

2070

Elo

5

COL

Colombia

Creative, unbeaten run

DWDWW

2003

Elo

1

6

POR

Portugal

Golden generation, final shot

LWDWD

1995

Elo

7

BRA

Brazil

Individual quality, defensive questions

LWWWD

1993

Elo

1

8

NED

Netherlands

Balanced, peaks in knockouts

DWWD

1971

Elo

9

NOR

Norway

World Cup 2026 participant

LWWLW

1951

Elo

10

BEL

Belgium

Transitional squad, still dangerous

LWWWD

1948

Elo

1

11

SUI

Switzerland

World Cup 2026 participant

LDWWW

1928

Elo

12

MEX

Mexico

Home crowds, attacking verve

LWWWW

1913

Elo

13

GER

Germany

Rebuilt, momentum building

DLWW

1908

Elo

1

14

MAR

Morocco

Semifinalist DNA, rock-solid

LWDWW

1901

Elo

1

15

JPN

Japan

Quick, fearless, organised

LDWD

1888

Elo

1

16

CRO

Croatia

Tournament pedigree, ageing core

LWWL

1882

Elo

1

17

ECU

Ecuador

World Cup 2026 participant

LWDL

1871

Elo

18

TUR

Türkiye

World Cup 2026 participant

WLL

1852

Elo

19

URU

Uruguay

Aggressive, well-coached

LDD

1841

Elo

1

20

AUT

Austria

World Cup 2026 participant

LDLW

1821

Elo

21

SEN

Senegal

World Cup 2026 participant

LWLL

1816

Elo

22

PAR

Paraguay

World Cup 2026 participant

LDDWL

1814

Elo

23

AUS

Australia

World Cup 2026 participant

DDLW

1795

Elo

24

IRN

Iran

World Cup 2026 participant

DDD

1764

Elo

25

ALG

Algeria

World Cup 2026 participant

LDWL

1756

Elo

26

USA

United States

Host energy + young core

LWLWW

1747

Elo

1

27

SCO

Scotland

World Cup 2026 participant

LLW

1745

Elo

28

EGY

Egypt

World Cup 2026 participant

LDDWD

1742

Elo

29

SWE

Sweden

World Cup 2026 participant

LDLW

1731

Elo

30

CAN

Canada

Pace on the break, host boost

LWLWD

1729

Elo

31

CIV

Ivory Coast

World Cup 2026 participant

LWLW

1727

Elo

32

KOR

South Korea

World Cup 2026 participant

LLW

1723

Elo

33

COD

Congo DR

World Cup 2026 participant

LWLD

1704

Elo

34

CZE

Czechia

World Cup 2026 participant

LDL

1680

Elo

35

PAN

Panama

World Cup 2026 participant

LLL

1658

Elo

36

UZB

Uzbekistan

World Cup 2026 participant

LLL

1631

Elo

37

JOR

Jordan

World Cup 2026 participant

LLL

1628

Elo

38

CPV

Cape Verde

World Cup 2026 participant

LDDD

1619

Elo

39

BIH

Bosnia-Herzegovina

World Cup 2026 participant

LWLD

1605

Elo

40

KSA

Saudi Arabia

World Cup 2026 participant

DLD

1596

Elo

41

GHA

Ghana

World Cup 2026 participant

LLDW

1570

Elo

42

TUN

Tunisia

World Cup 2026 participant

LLL

1562

Elo

43

IRQ

Iraq

World Cup 2026 participant

LLL

1561

Elo

44

RSA

South Africa

World Cup 2026 participant

LWDL

1559

Elo

45

NZL

New Zealand

World Cup 2026 participant

LLD

1534

Elo

46

HAI

Haiti

World Cup 2026 participant

LLL

1517

Elo

47

CUW

Curaçao

World Cup 2026 participant

LDL

1438

Elo

48

QAT

Qatar

World Cup 2026 participant

LLD

1411

Elo