Top Scorer Watch

Golden Boot projections & the scoring race

Updated 9:00 PM· next 1:00 AM
JB
Current golden boot leader
ARG
L. Messi
Argentina · FWD
8
Goals scored
8
Projected total
7.3%
Win probability
Top-scorer formula

Why Messi leads the model

Goals scored
8
Tournament goals
Proj. total
8
Final projected tally
Games played
0
Appearances
Penalty taker
No
No bonus
Group difficulty
0.983
Favourable
Injury risk
Low
Fully fit
The race

Top Scorer Watch

1
ARG
L. Messi
Argentina · FWD
8
Goals
8
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 7.3%
2
FRA
Kylian MbappéPK
Penalty taker, deep tournament run projected
7
Goals
7
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 6.4%
1
3
NOR
E. Haaland
Norway · FWD
7
Goals
7
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 6.4%
4
ENG
H. KanePK
England · FWD
6
Goals
6
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 5.5%
5
SEN
I. Sarr
Senegal · FWD
4
Goals
4.6
Proj. total
87%
Golden Boot 4.2%
6
BRA
Vinícius Júnior
High xG but Brazil exit risk in QF
4
Goals
4
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 3.6%
1
7
ESP
Mikel Oyarzabal
Spain · FWD
4
Goals
4
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 3.6%
8
FRA
O. Dembélé
France · FWD
4
Goals
4
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 3.6%
9
MEX
J. Quiñones
Mexico · FWD
4
Goals
4
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 3.6%
10
ENG
J. Bellingham
England · FWD
4
Goals
4
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 3.6%
11
COD
Y. WissaPK
Congo DR · FWD
3
Goals
3.8
Proj. total
79%
Golden Boot 3.5%
12
GER
K. HavertzPK
Germany · FWD
3
Goals
3.7
Proj. total
81%
Golden Boot 3.3%
13
NED
C. Gakpo
Netherlands · FWD
3
Goals
3.5
Proj. total
86%
Golden Boot 3.2%
14
GER
D. Undav
Germany · FWD
3
Goals
3.4
Proj. total
88%
Golden Boot 3.1%
15
NED
B. Brobbey
Netherlands · FWD
3
Goals
3.4
Proj. total
88%
Golden Boot 3.1%
16
CAN
J. David
Canada · FWD
3
Goals
3
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 2.7%
17
SUI
J. Manzambi
Switzerland · FWD
3
Goals
3
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 2.7%
18
BRA
Matheus Cunha
Brazil · FWD
3
Goals
3
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 2.7%
19
MAR
I. Saibari
Morocco · FWD
3
Goals
3
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 2.7%
20
NZL
E. Just
New Zealand · FWD
3
Goals
3
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 2.7%
21
BEL
R. Lukaku
Belgium · FWD
3
Goals
3
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 2.7%
22
SWE
Y. Ayari
Sweden · FWD
2
Goals
2.8
Proj. total
71%
Golden Boot 2.6%
23
JPN
D. Kamada
Japan · FWD
2
Goals
2.7
Proj. total
74%
Golden Boot 2.5%
24
NED
C. Summerville
Netherlands · FWD
2
Goals
2.6
Proj. total
77%
Golden Boot 2.4%
25
JPN
A. Ueda
Japan · FWD
2
Goals
2.5
Proj. total
80%
Golden Boot 2.3%
26
SEN
P. Gueye
Senegal · FWD
2
Goals
2.5
Proj. total
80%
Golden Boot 2.3%
27
CAN
C. Larin
Canada · FWD
2
Goals
2
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 1.8%
28
USA
F. Balogun
USA · FWD
2
Goals
2
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 1.8%
29
URU
M. Araújo
Uruguay · FWD
2
Goals
2
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 1.8%
30
SUI
R. Vargas
Switzerland · FWD
2
Goals
2
Proj. total
100%
Golden Boot 1.8%
31
NED
Cody Gakpo
Versatile, on penalties for Netherlands
0
Goals
0.4
Proj. total
0%
Golden Boot 0.4%
32
ENG
Harry KanePK
Pens + open play, England favoured to go far
0
Goals
0
Proj. total
0%
Golden Boot 0%
1
33
ARG
Lautaro Martínez
Elite finisher on champions' projected run
0
Goals
0
Proj. total
0%
Golden Boot 0%
34
ESP
Lamine Yamal
Volume creator, finishing rising sharply
0
Goals
0
Proj. total
0%
Golden Boot 0%
1
35
ARG
Julián Álvarez
Shares minutes, secondary pen option
0
Goals
0
Proj. total
0%
Golden Boot 0%
36
POR
Rafael Leão
Breakout form, Portugal deep run plausible
0
Goals
0
Proj. total
0%
Golden Boot 0%
1
37
NOR
Erling HaalandPK
World-class finisher and penalty taker. Medium injury risk the only drag. Norway in tough Group I (France).
0
Goals
0
Proj. total
0%
Golden Boot 0%